Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has shown his strategic acumen, honed by 30 years of cementing control at home and influence abroad, as conflict flares in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Raised as a refugee, forged by a Ugandan bush war and the horrific Rwandan genocide of 1994, Kagame takes no chances when it come to threats to his country and personal authority, experts say.
Now Rwanda stands accused of backing an armed group — the M23 — that has seized large swathes of the mineral-rich eastern DRC in recent weeks, facing limited resistance from Congolese forces.
United Nations experts say Rwanda effectively controls the M23 and has at least 4,000 troops fighting alongside the group.
The DRC government accuses Rwanda of “expansionist ambitions” and says it is stealing vast amounts of minerals.
But its calls for international sanctions on Rwanda have so far come to nothing.
Kagame denies the allegations but says Hutu leaders implicated in the 1994 genocide are present in the eastern DRC, threatening Rwanda, and must be eliminated.
For analysts, this delicate balancing act underlines how Kagame has become the quintessential “chess-player” of African politics.
“He is the master of politico-military affairs,” said a Western diplomat. “With him nothing is left to chance, never.”
– Politician, soldier, strategist –
For many at home and abroad, Kagame is the visionary hero who pulled his country from the depths of genocidal horror and turned it into a development showcase built on tourism, conferences and shiny deals with European football clubs and US basketball players.
For others, “PK” has become, at 67, a despot who muzzles all opposition.
“You can’t separate Kagame the politician from Kagame the soldier, the strategist,” said Onesphore Sematumba, of the International Crisis Group.
“When he talks about certain political and even diplomatic issues to Westerners, he often says… ‘Do these people know my background?'”
The future ruler was three-years-old when his parents, linked to Rwanda’s former royal family, fled to neighbouring Uganda after the massacres of Tutsis in 1959.
He spent 34 years in exile.
“Kagame is a very embittered former refugee, who grew up in a certain amount of hardship, very aware that he was a second class citizen in Uganda,” said Michela Wrong, a journalist specialising in the region.
Kagame fought alongside Ugandan rebels led by future president Yoweri Museveni in the 1980s.
He later formed the Rwandan Patriotic Front with other exiles, which ultimately brought him back to Rwanda in 1994 to overthrow the genocidal Hutu authorities that had killed some 800,000, mostly Tutsis.
That history means his government takes few chances with security.
In his view, “if there are two Hutu extremists left, they must be eliminated, because they will do it again — one day, they will return,” said another regional diplomat.
– ‘Life and death’ –
Kagame has ensured his army is “by far the most effective” in the region, according to the ICG.
And he faces few challengers at home: last year, he was re-elected for a fourth presidential term with no less than 99 percent of the vote.
“A strong leader is not necessarily a bad leader,” Kagame told Jeune Afrique magazine in 2016.
Western guilt for failing to prevent the genocide has helped to limit criticisms of Kagame.
That has over the years combined with appreciation for Rwanda’s corruption-free use of aid and canny deals like the offer to take unwanted migrants from Britain.
The last time the M23 seized large parts of the eastern DRC in 2012, international opprobrium forced Kagame to abandon support for the group, leading to its defeat.
Analysts say his heightened stature after years of energetic diplomacy, including support for regional peace-keeping missions, makes that less likely this time.
“The Kagame of 2025 is not the same Kagame as in 2012. He is now aware of his importance on the international scene,” said Sematumba.
In any case, he does not hide his contempt for Western critics of his policies in the DRC.
“For you it’s just something you talk about… while you’re playing football or tennis, or golf,” Kagame told a room full of diplomats last month.
“It’s life and death to me and my people.”
